Do Not Resuscitate
There comes a time when difficult decisions have to be made as to whether or not to carry on or to let nature take its course. Many of us have had to make hard decisions such as a loved pet that has been in an accident or has just come to the end of an active life and we have to decide if we prolong their life or let them go.
This is where we are currently with the Greek debt crisis, do they get a further bail out or extension to their loan repayment or should Greece be allowed to default and ultimately carry out the ultimate sin of leaving the Euro?
A difficult question that has no easy solution. Keeping Greece in the Euro will not solve their problems, the chances of them ever being able to raise the money to repay their debt is only by further borrowing, which is self-defeating. Despite what we may hear Greece and its people are wealthy, they live a good life and enjoy good weather, food and health; despite what people may think the average Greek does pay tax and does contribute to the nation’s wealth. Yes there is tax evasion and avoidance the same as everywhere; how many builders do you pay in cash to keep the price down, do you think they then declare that cash payment on their tax return? It is the super-rich that employ creative accounting to avoid paying tax, much like the super-rich in every country, that are the problem.
The problem with Greece is that same problem that plagues all the southern European states and many of the ex-eastern bloc countries, and that is the idea that one a one size currency can fit all across Europe. Maybe in the future there will be one currency for all of Europe, possibly even the world, but not until other measures are put in place first.
The Greek economy is small compared to the northern industrial giants, the cost of living in Greece is considerably less than northern Europe, hence the average Greek wage is a lot lower than their German counterpart.
We are not talking small regional differences as in London compared to the north of England, we are talking about huge differences in pay and prices for essentials. Conversely it is this price difference that makes Greece and other southern Euro states so attractive as holiday destinations for wealthier northern Europeans. Without this price difference Greece would lose a lot of income from tourism; which is one of their largest sources of income and employment.
The entire Euro project was implemented without any consideration to the needs of the people and the economies of each individual country, granted all countries had to achieve certain criteria with regards to balance sheet and future outlook to be granted entry to this expensive club; but as we have seen nearly all the countries that have joined, or applied to join the euro, have been economical with the truth about their finances.
The idea of one currency is good and will bring stability, but only if the qualifying participants start from a nearly level playing field. This means wage scales, prices and above all taxation across the zone are similar. This way integration will be easier as the adjustment in any one area will be slight; however the disparity between the north and the south will lead to the demise of the Euro.
In order for Greece to recover Europe must implement a DNR policy and allow the country to exit the Euro and return to the Drachma. Greece will then have control of its currency and the world markets will let the new Drachma rise or fall as conditions dictate. This way Greece will climb out of the mess left by the last 2 ruling parties that dominated Greek politics for too long and once again become a prosperous nation.
History has shown that if you keep kicking the people when they are down they soon rise up and bite off the foot that is kicking them. We only have to look at France and the French revolution when the peasants rose up and removed the ruling elite, or the Balkan states themselves; the crucible of 2 world wars.
On a personal note the return of the Drachma could be good as I have a draw full of old (war time) drachma notes to spend.