Aegle Comments – Page 2 – Random thoughts

Do the Hokey Cokey

We all know this song from our childhood and various parties where we all get in a line and aimlessly follow the leader who is acting the buffoon.

Well this is farce that the EU vote is descending into, on the remain in side we are being fed scare story after scare story about how the UK economy will collapse and that we will be cast out like the proverbial leper never to return or show our face again. So far we have not been threatened with the 10 plagues of Egypt; though I am certain that this is probably the hidden ace up the “vote in” sleeve.

On the other side we are being offered very little, the Brexit campaigners are not promising anything to entice an out vote. All they are saying is that we will once again be in charge of our destiny, our borders, our laws, who we trade with and our country.

On the face of it the remain vote are offering a big stick and Armageddon if we leave and the out vote are offering very little other than total Borg like assimilation if we remain and a leap into the unknown if we leave.

This is why so many people are undecided and afraid to make the wrong, or right, decision on EU membership.

It was in 1973 that the British, myself included, had our first vote on joining the European Economic Community. An organisation that would allow free trade between member states allowing us in the UK to import goods cheaply into the UK, including many food products that the majority of the British had never seen before; green and red peppers, aubergines, French cheeses, olive oil, various pastas plus many more now common place foodstuffs.

Like many I voted to join this Common Market, so that we could all have access to a variety of products, goods and services that would enhance the UK and the rest of Europe whilst ensuring that everyone benefited.

Two years later in 1975 we had a second vote on our continued membership, once again on seeing the benefits we had garnered from Europe, I voted to remain in the EU.

Now once again the question of Europe has raised its head.

The problem we have this time is similar to before in that if we vote out we are taking a step into the unknown, whereas before that step was to join the EEC (not the EU).

If we liken this to our working life, how many people are happy in their chosen career, yet they plod along doing the same old thing day in day out with no real job satisfaction; why because they are afraid of taking that leap into the unknown and doing something different. In other words they are stuck in a rut that is so deep that they cannot, or are too afraid to see over the sides.

We see these people every day as we commute to work, they board the same train, sit in the same seat, walk the same route, wear the same coat for years on end as they plod along to work dreaming of the weekend when they get a break from the mundane daily trudge to their workplace.

When at work they do their tasks well and accurately, but they hate change. Introduce a new system and they will give you a thousand reasons as to why it won’t work. Try to move premises and they will scream and shout that if you move the company will fall into the Abyss and staff will leave in their hundreds.

It is a fact that people do not like change; people like to do the same thing in the same way all the time, even if it is inefficient, expensive and non-productive. They do it this way because it has always been done this way and any change is fraught with danger.

It is a brave person that decides to change profession completely, let alone change jobs or move house. Yet many people do change and very few regret that change a few years later; granted the initial shock may be scary and it may be roller coaster ride for a short time. But the benefits normally outweigh the risks involved.

As a nation we are now in the same position as a middle aged worker who has been with the same company for 25 years and has to decide:-

Whether to leave the perceived security of remaining with an organisation that offers a monthly income, help and support, sickness benefit and a pension; but at the cost of being ruled by others, no promotion, no creativity and no feeling of personal achievement.
To leave and join a new company or start your own company where you are in total control, you will reap the profits (and suffer the losses), you will have ultimate responsibility for your future, you can grow your business as you see fit and take holidays when you want and your self-esteem and feeling of job satisfaction will continue to grow. Who knows maybe in the future your company will be big enough to take over your old company.

If you feel you are stuck in a rut in your career then now is the time to talk to us and see if we can help you move your career forward. Call now on 01689-820820 or email rick@aegle.co.uk

Never accept a counter offer

A subject I find myself coming back to time and again when talking with people about their future career.

You have been with the same company for many years, you do your job well, you obey the rules and to an extent you are comfortable in your position. Then you find out that you are doing more work than newer employees and that you are receiving less in benefits or pay.

This triggers the desire to take a step back and look at how you are going to advance your career to suit your changing needs and aspirations. Many people will talk to their line managers and ask about promotion and a well-deserved increase in pay; for some the negotiations go well and a successful result is achieved. For others the offer is derisory and makes them all the more determined to find a new position.

With the right help a new opportunity arises, one that offers you the chance to really advance your career and increase your reward both financially and personally.

Armed with your new offer it is time to resign; it is very likely your company knew you were looking after your previous negotiations, however they never expected you to resign as you are a major contributor to the well-being of the organisation.

As soon as your resignation is handed over your company realises that you leaving will create a vacuum; because no one has your skills or can work as efficiently as you. Immediately the counter offer wheels will start turning.

You are told that since your last, failed negotiation, they have been working hard behind the scenes to meet your demands, but they couldn’t tell you. They now have an improved offer of more money, more responsibility, a better title, a company car shorter hours and anything else they can throw at you to stay.

This is now the most dangerous position for you to be in, you know the company, you are worried about the unknown new company, you feel unsure.

You must now be sensible and look to the future by looking back at the past; why did you look around? Because you have been taken for granted, your pay has dropped behind newer employees, you have been passed over for promotion and you have learned nothing new for a long time.

Once you have made the decision to leave you should never accept a counter offer, no matter how good it appears.

What to expect should you accept a counter offer. First off the company will now distrust you and any future prospects will be limited. It may not be immediately obvious and it may take time to surface. The company will start training someone else for your position should you decide to go in the future. The company will know that you can be bought and they will take full advantage of this knowledge by leaving you out of important decision making.

In many ways this is where the United Kingdom is today, our Prime Minister has spent time at the conference table trying to renegotiate a deal to improve the lot of the British people and he has come away with crumbs.

These crumbs are supposed to influence the British voter on their decision as to whether we remain part of the EU or if we pull out and go it alone. There are benefits on remaining a member of the EU and there are benefits on leaving.

Whatever the outcome of the referendum will be the decision must be final, if it is to stay then we must embrace Europe and become a full member and stop all the moaning about it. If on the other hand the vote is to leave then we must go and stand alone.

I suspect if the vote is to leave the EU then the EU commission will try and renegotiate a new deal and start promising us everything, plus things that haven’t been asked for. Like the individual accepting a counter offer we will open ourselves up to ridicule and we will lose any influence we may have had. Other members will know that we are spineless and they will have no respect for us.

There are many similarities between an individual resigning and us leaving the EU, but no matter what; my advice is the same “NEVER ACCEPT A COUNTER OFFER”.

The times they are a changing.

If you require help on how to resign then get in contact with me anytime.

Bubbles

Can you remember when we were children and our fascination with bubbles, how with a little puff of air these magnificent globes of suds would appear and hover in the air; then slowly they would start to float away on the current and bob around mesmerising us as the suns’ rays changed their iridescent colours through the spectrum of the rainbow. images

The bubble would then gain speed as it floated away until it met a solid object and burst or as it gained height and the air pressure changed it would expand exponentially and burst showering us with miniscule amounts of water that vanished rapidly.

This is what is happening now with the global economy, it has become one huge bubble that is going to burst in a catastrophic way and bring ruin on billions of people.

We have seen a number of small “bubbles” burst in the last 20 or so years; such as the DotCom bubble where investors ploughed millions into companies that just produced software but had no assets to back up the share price; granted some of these companies are still around and making millions in charging for a service that we all use, but most of the DotComs went down leaving investors holding shares that weren’t worth the paper they were written on.

We also saw the bubble created by the banks in packaging up bad debt and selling it on as an investment; debt that had no chance of ever being repaid. Added to this was the trading in derivatives on goods or minerals that may or may not be produced in 5 years’ time. We all know the results of this and we are all suffering the fall out.

Despite this there is now another bubble that is growing bigger than any of those in the past. It is once again growing from debt and no return on money.

This time however the central banks are to blame; central banks that take their lead from governments and politicians.

Central banks are responsible for setting the base rates in individual countries taking into account the country’s financial state and its requirement for money on the global market. Since the economic downturn central banks have been keeping individual base rates artificially low to enable more borrowing in the hope that more money in the economy will stimulate growth and speed up the recovery; added to this central banks have introduced “Quantitative easing” which in itself is not a bad idea.

The result of introducing Quantitative easing coupled with low cost borrowing should be to make that country look more attractive for investment as it is offering something others countries are not as in low rates and a devalued currency without actually devaluing the currency. However since the introduction of low rates and Quantitative easing many other countries have done exactly the same thing, which can only lead to everyone still on a level playing field and the status quo remaining the same.

Low borrowing rates has lulled too many people into taking out loans that have stretched them to the limit. We are once again being chased by many deals to “buy now and pay later” regardless of how repayments will be made should there be an increase in the interest rate.

This type of reckless lending is creating a massive lending bubble that will eventually burst.

On the converse side we are seeing many people, primarily pensioners, who have saved all their lives for their retirement only to find the return on their investment has been decimated and any saving they have is paying a paltry rate of less than 1%.

With such a low return on savings people have to “dip” into their nest egg to survive, which in turn reduces the amount of money available for banks and investment companies to invest in industry and growth; which will kick start the economy and generate real wealth and stability.

With interest rates so low people can see no benefit in putting money away “for a rainy day” or to invest in a pension; especially as every pension scheme seems to end up being robbed by various chancellors in order to raise money, under the pretext of robbing the rich. Instead people are spending on material goods and frivolous items, mostly manufactured in the Far East; so benefiting their economy rather than ours.

This world debt is growing completely out of control with every country owing unimaginable amounts of money to the country next door, unlike the banking debt where a default would lead to a bank declaring itself bankrupt, we now have the certainty that countries are going to be declared bankrupt. Which in turn will bring many other countries to the brink of default and bankruptcy.

This time the bubble is being controlled by the central banks, governments and the bureaucratic machine behind them; like most things run by governments their experience and knowledge is limited.

At the same time we must have some sympathy with the central banks as they are sailing between Scylla and Charybdis; on one side they feel obliged to protect home owners who have a mortgage and cannot afford an increase in loan repayments because they have borrowed up to their limit and on the other side are investors who need a return on their money to live before they too have to borrow thus increasing the lending bubble even more.

Should Britain decide to exit the European Union the bubble will be put under so much pressure, because Europe relies on the UK’s contribution, that it will burst resulting in world-wide monetary Armageddon.

The only solution must be to reduce debt and increase saving and this can only be achieved if interest rates rise slowly but in a controlled way, rather than across the board; starting with new lending. This will not put pressure on those with existing mortgages but will allow those with money to invest to get a return on their money that they can then reinvest or spend.

Interviews – Answer the question

For many years I have successfully been instructing people how to prepare for an interview, how to behave at an interview and how to respond to questions asked. Most times the instructions work with the interviewees being offered a position with the company.

Yet even despite all our teaching and advice some interviewees still fall down on the silliest little thing, normally when they let their guard down.

If you are attending an interview or “informal meeting” it is essential that you prepare everything in advance, we all know the normal things, look up the company, read the job specification (if there is one), get some information on the interviewer (LinkedIn), dress for the part, turn off your phone and always carry at least 3 copies of your CV with you in a folder; plus a digital copy on your phone or tablet.

You must psych yourself up for the interview and get into what I call “interview mode”, and this must be from the moment you leave your house. Give yourself plenty of time to allow for any transport delays and be extra polite while travelling to the venue, do not get into any disagreements or spats with fellow commuters or wave your fists at other drivers; should there be an incident just shrug it off. It is possible that the person who barged into you on the train or the driver who cut you up and you swore at may be the interviewer; I have heard of this happening.

When approaching the venue take care, some companies are watching you on CCTV to see how you behave and how you interact with strangers. Most companies have CCTV in their waiting areas, so no fiddling with gadgets (other than to turn them off) or lolling about; read the newspaper or the company report that is normally on the desk.

Once in the interview you will be asked questions, including the so called “curved ball question” that has absolutely no relevance to anything at all, but is just there to see how you react and respond. “Who will win Britain’s got Talent” if you are like me and never watch reality shows then say that you do not watch these type of shows; don’t say “I never watch this rubbish” in case it is the interviewers favourite show.

A recent client of ours was asked about his thoughts on Anthropogenic Global Warming, her response was that she did not feel AGW was created by humans and gave a reasonable account as to why she felt that way; without getting into any argument or dragged out discussion as she did not know how the interviewer felt about the subject. She was offered the position.

It really does not matter what your reply is to the odd question as long as you can justify your response with a reasoned answer, but do not get too controversial or aim to insult and score points.

One question that I often ask an interviewee and one that is rarely answered correctly is “Tell me about yourself”. Whenever I ask this question the interviewee normally starts off the same way, first they have to think about the response (why, don’t they know themselves?), then off they go:

My name is, I am xx years old, I work for XYZ, my job is…, I have achieved…, I am married with 2 kids; and so it goes on. I know all this I have a copy of your CV in front of me and I have read it and therefore decided that you may be interesting enough for me to talk to and possibly see if you could work here.

My question was “Tell me about Yourself.” That means I want you to tell me about the real you and not the working person. Your response should therefore be instant as you should know yourself. It may be an idea to write a short history of your life just to refresh your memory and stop that “Err umm” moment when asked the question.

I was born in London, went to comprehensive/grammar/private school, played rugby/football/netball, attended university, married/kids. Enjoy travelling, paragliding, cooking and I am an arctophile; good to throw in an odd hobby if there is one (but not trainspotting).

Another question I often ask is “What is your earliest memory” once again you should be able to respond immediately without “umming or erring”

There is no right answer to either of these questions but they will show the interviewer that you are a human being and that you do have a life outside of work, and it is possible they may share the same pastime or hobby. I would take care though on being too passionate about following any sports team, it may be one the interviewer hates or it may be felt that you will be taking time off to follow your team or start arguments about your sport.

A last word of advice, when leaving the building remember they may still be watching you on CCTV, so take care.

Need more advice and help on changing career then email me now on rick@aegle.co.uk

Confidence

Many of our successful individual clients mention to me that despite their experience they still suffer pre-interview nerves; this really is quite normal and is nothing to be worried about.

Even after running this business for 20 years I sometimes feel anxious before meeting a new corporate customer or even an individual client who is seeking our help. The reason being we are suddenly taken out of our comfort zone, we are in front of a stranger and we all want to make a good impression, but we do not know what to expect; will we get on, are they friendly, am I dressed right, are all among the fears crossing our minds.

Personally I think a little anxiety is good as it makes you more alert and able to handle any situation that may arise; whereas someone who is overconfident may appear to be arrogant and hard to get along with.

For many others the thought of standing up in front of people and doing a presentation fills them with dread; in other words “stage fright” a fear that many famous actors suffer with.

Then there is that fear of walking into a room filled with strangers that you will have to mingle with and possibly even talk to. Believe me most of these strangers feel the same, unless they are there with an acquaintance.

This is why prior to any interview, presentation or gathering it is essential that you do a little homework first. Try and get some background information on the other parties, whether they be the interviewers, audience or other delegates. Make certain you are ready to respond to any questions and know how to make small talk; and always be prepared for the unexpected.

If you are attending an interview ensure that you understand the position you are applying for and be confident (for more information email me requesting a copy of our “how to successfully handle an interview”). If it is a panel interview remember you are addressing a number of people, you have to connect with all of them and show you know what you are talking about. Not always an easy thing, but something you should try and practice doing.

However I would stress that you don’t overdo the preparation as this may make you anxious or may make you seem like a “know all” at the interview; making the interviewer feel ill at ease.

This is why it is essential that you arrive early to any meeting or presentation just so that you can relax and calm yourself before proceeding, I would suggest you find a restroom to make sure you are still dressed for the part and to use the conveniences. Stand outside the meeting place take a few deep breaths, hold yourself erect and enter with confidence.

Will the nervousness ever leave you? I doubt it, but it will become less of an issue and one that you can learn to control as many others do all the time.

What comes first; Money or Family?

It appears that what I have been saying for years is true, most high earning men are missing out on family life; the problem being is that they are nearly all too scared to do anything about it.

A study at the University of Leicester has shown that most high earning men would be willing to take a pay cut if it meant they could spend more time with their family or just enjoying life by taking up a personal hobby or sport. I would add to this that if these people do spend a bit more time with family they will be more relaxed, less likely to fall ill or have a heart attack and would generally be more productive and possibly even innovative due to a reduced level of stress.

I do believe that many people, mostly men as despite equality laws men still tend to be the main earner, put in all the extra hours and work harder (but not necessarily more productive) because they feel they need to in order to climb the corporate ladder. Couple this with a fear of losing their job or missing out on promotion and extra money.

The number of people I know who are stuck in this self-perpetuating cycle of feeling guilty at not spending time with the family so they buy them expensive gifts/toys that creates a need to earn more money to buy an even more expensive gift/toy next time round; when I am certain most partners/kids would be happier if they spent a little more time playing with them and being thoroughly stupid.

I wonder how many times these high earners have managed to attend their kids school plays or open evenings, how many times they have taken their kids round the local park and played ball with them or taken them swimming without their spouse.

The trouble is we have become a very monetary society and it appears that care is now measured by material goods, the latest I-Phone, Xbox, TV or other electronic gadget.

I hear people commenting on their “family holiday” and it appears a “family holiday” now is one where family fly out and stay at the same resort but then the kids are sent off to different activities all day leaving the wife in the free spa while the husband sits by the pool and catches up on work related business; all because he thinks he is indispensible. The only time they spend together is possibly evening meal times or bed times.

A very small number of high earners will be able to reach a point where they can spend less time working and more time doing what they like, Richard Branson comes to mind, but they are very far and few between and normally own the company. For most you are just another cog in the machine that will get replaced when you wear out or are superseded by a more efficient cog (maybe a cheaper version made in the Far East).

No matter the lure of money and status we must all take time out to be with those that really matter and that includes spending some time doing what you want to do thus allowing the brain to recharge.

It is very difficult in today’s world to do this, as any sign of weakness or inefficiency and your head could be the next to roll; leaving you with a large mortgage, school fees and family with very expensive tastes. It seems that corporate life sucks the very life out of us and replaces it with greed for ever more material things; where a balance between the two would be better.

The higher up the ladder you climb and the more you earn the more likely you are to have people out to depose you; those above see you as threat to themselves and want to keep you down or out, and those below you want your job and are willing to get it any way they can. Or so you think; so you work harder put in more hours, leading to you being less productive and inefficient until finally something snaps. As for the company, they replace you and carry on as if nothing happened and you are forgotten within a couple of days.

Most high earners have subordinates or assistants working for them, if so, use them. Become a real manager and delegate the work, let others take the responsibility and release some of the pressure on yourself. If you show trust in your staff they will respect you more and work with you rather than against you.

If you are asked to give an estimate for a project to be finished always overestimate the time required; you will look good for finishing early and you have allowed yourself time in case there is a problem.

Ensure you do not stay late at work every day, make it a rule that you will go home early one day a week and spend time with the family or going to play golf (socially not business). When you go on holiday leave all electronic devices switched off or better yet at home, trust your staff to continue the business.

By relaxing a little you will be able to clear your mind and look at work with a fresh mind, helping you to see the big picture and be more relaxed.

The old adage “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy” is very true; it’s just a pity that corporate life seems to think different and just wants to drive people on harder every day while enticing them with more money. Carrots and donkeys come to mind.

Not fit for work? Perhaps it is time for a change.

End of the summer break and for many today is the first day back to work; unless you don’t have school age children then you are probably going off on vacation now. As usual not a lot happens in August on the job front and even the press seem to find it difficult to fill up a newspaper with real news, so we have had a month of being bombarded with trivia and “non-news”.

The question is are you looking forward to returning to work and the same old thing, a bit like a hamster in wheel running fast and going nowhere. Or hopefully you still get a buzz out of your job, you still find It exciting, demanding and rewarding (mentally and financially); if you do still enjoy the buzz then this is not for you as you are still climbing the ladder to success, this is for the majority of workers who are no longer as enthusiastic as they were.

If you woke up this morning thinking “Oh hell, back to work” or suffering a mild ailment that you hope is an excuse not to return to work; then now is the time to take control of your life and look at how with a little effort you can change your entire working life and once again start to enjoy work and improve your entire life style.

It is possible that you are in the best job to suit your career and abilities; but you have become bored because every day is the same. You get the same train, sit in the same seat, walk down the same roads, sit at the same desk and carry out the same tasks; any variation to this routine is seen as a threat, possibly even disaster, so things never change.

It is this continual repetition in life that causes you to stagnate and become bored, your brain atrophies and the thought of change becomes a nightmare you do not wish to visit; in fact you even believe that change is impossible and make excuses not to change, ranging from “company policy” to “it can’t be done”. Both of which are untrue, change and improvement is always possible, it just takes a bit of courage and foresight plus the aptitude to do something different.

To make it easy start off small, vary your route to work, get a different train, change seat on the train (this will force someone else to change), when you get to work change your desk around or re-organise the office furniture so everyone has to change with you. You will be surprised how just a small change can re-invigorate and enthuse staff; as they too are probably feeling the same as you.

Look at business processes and staff allocation; can things be changed. Why not switch jobs for a day (security and authority allowing) with a junior member of staff so that you can reacquaint yourself of the work flow; and maybe see ways to improve or streamline the business.

Should none of this appeal to you then you have a couple of choices; one is to resign and move to different company doing a similar job, the other is to change career.

The advantages of moving to a different company are you will be doing a job that you know, you will be talking to people you know, you will be working within your comfort zone, the risks are minimal. The disadvantages are that you may well feel the same about your job as you do now and you may well be limiting your creativity and ambitions.

By changing career altogether the disadvantages can be risky, you do not know how the new venture will work out, you will be working outside of your comfort zone, you will have to learn new skills; should you decide to start your own business you may have the worry of finance.

The advantages are it will be an adventure (one that really tests your skills and resilience), you will have to learn new skills and responsibilities, you will be your own boss and can work the hours you want, the rewards are yours; but most important you are now the master of your own destiny.

If you are feeling down and suffering with a “phantom illness” at the thought of returning to work then now is the time to do something about it. More so as the UK economy is growing once again and the opportunities are out there for those who have the courage to take the leap; whether it is for a similar position in a similar company, a completely new career with a different company or starting your own business.

Feel free to give us a call to talk about your future career and how we may work together in helping you to achieve ultimate job satisfaction and take control of your future.

Call now on 01689 820820 or email rick@aegle.co.uk or keith@aegle.co.uk

History repeats itself

It seems that history keeps repeating itself and that no matter what we do the history seems to repeat itself.

Every civilisation grows, expands and prospers; then a number of things occur and implosion starts. In the past we had the Egyptian, Greek, Roman, Indian and various South American civilisations all now gone. In recent years we have seen Russia grow and become powerful, then the people start to rebel and the country fragments and break apart; though not yet catastrophic as the repercussions are still going on.

Closer to home we have the EU, an idea that started off with all the right intentions; peace, free trade, prosperity for all its members and co-operation. Yet as this entity grew the wishes of the people are being dashed as the bureaucratic machine takes hold and forces change too fast. The EU has become unmanageable as new states clamour to join and get access to the vast pot of money on offer to help them, however it is the people of these states that are giving the money yet seeing very little reward or benefit to themselves.

Like all large government institutions and ruling parties throughout history we are seeing a re-run of the ruling elite becoming ever more powerful and rich while showing a complete disdain for the general populace. The ruling elite, who are meant to be democratically elected, are promoting their relatives and friends into high positions so that their power can continue. In some cases by offering up their offspring to the electorate in a safe seat thus ensuring they are “democratically” elected. Look at how many ex-MP’s children have been elected to our parliament or to the EU Parliament.

In the not too distant past we saw the French people rise up and remove the heads from their royal family, a family that had become so corrupt and distant from its people. Then we have the Russian Tsar’s who were also slaughtered by a disgruntled people, only to be replaced by a communist state that also became corrupt and lived in luxury while the people where held back.

The same is happening across Europe now with politicians that no longer have the interests of the people at heart and who seem to be more interested in remaining in power at all costs and living the good life.

The recent financial crisis may well be the start of the end, countries across Europe have instigated austerity programmes and are telling the people they must cut back, yet the same people who are demanding cuts are still living the high life and spending the country’s wealth on themselves and their compatriots.

China has risen rapidly from a third world closed economy to become the second most powerful economy in the world; however it seems as if this meteoric rise in fortunes is starting to fall apart as their stock market crashes. A crash that could well have a tremendous impact on the rest of the world, especially in the Euro zone.

Taking all this uncertainty into account I can see another larger financial crash coming, probably starting in China and cascading down through Europe as Greece and other Southern European countries renege on their unmanageable debt.

The cracks in Europe are beginning to show and as most of Europe now relies upon a single currency there is no room for any of the poorer states to devalue or realign their currency, leaving them at the mercy of the richer states. In the past every country had its own currency and the currency found its own value in the markets, traders could dip in and out of currencies as they perceived each individual risk; and they moved money into safer areas. The Euro has stopped that, thus reducing choice but I believe increasing risk as now all our eggs are in fewer baskets.

Should this situation continue we shall see an increase in riots and civil unrest and possibly a collapse of law and order and even a form of civil or class war.

Greece; What next?

Greece

For the past few months we have been bombarded with reports on the Greek debt and how they will default on their loans repayments to all their creditors; the doom-sayers are predicting the end of the Euro, others saying Greece will revert to the Drachma plus no end of other scenarios that will all be played out for the next few days.

In order to understand some of the problems that Greece has we must look back at Greece’s history. I don’t claim to know it all but will speak about my observations of the problem and my knowledge of the Greek people.

I have been travelling to and from Greece since 1953/4 normally staying with family in one of the family homes. I have seen Greece evolve from a very backward third world country to what it is today. In the late 60’s the average Greek family did not own a television, granted the main reason being that outside of the major cities reception was poor at best. Greeks did not own cars, have air conditioning or many other household appliances that we took for granted.

As technology and travel improved Greeks saw how the rest of Europe was living and rightly so aspired to the same or even better. Problem being Greece was just coming out of a strictly regimented military junta (1974) and was once again getting to grips with democracy and the rule of the people; however despite the military stepping down there was still the unsaid threat that they could return.

Tourism grew rapidly and the Greeks began to have disposable income to spend on themselves; the outdoor eating culture has always been there as has the good life, but now they wanted the luxuries that the rest of Europe was enjoying.

The trouble with the Greek economy is that they are not net producers, they have a fantastic tourist industry, but rely for most of it on the income generated on the islands that are only open for less than 6 months of the year, so they only employ short term contract staff to cover that period. These employees are unemployed or odd-jobbing for the winter months and therefore cost the country vital revenue.

Greece’s main export is refined petroleum (35%) though this is offset by raw petroleum accounting for 24% of all imports. After petroleum Greece’s next export is packaged medicaments 3.1%, followed by various metals and related products.

Greece’s other industry is agriculture and fish, in my opinion Greece produces the best olive oil in the world which accounts for 1.3% of all exports, though once again due to the terrain much of Greece is rocky and not suitable for crop growing; yet the parts that are produce first class, cotton, oranges, lemons and a variety of other products. Figures obtained from Observatory of economic complexity.

None of which can equal the might of the heavily industrialised countries of northern Europe either in production or profit.

The culture of Greece is very different in that they work to live, rather than live to work. The Greeks have a relaxed way of dealing with life, they will take things slow and easy and perhaps never finish the job. This is partly because of the climate, working in a hot factory or near a blast furnace is bad enough in colder climates; imagine that heat in Greece when outside temperatures soar above 40degrees.

We mustn’t forget that while northern Europe was going through the industrial and agricultural revolution Greece was an occupied state and subservient to the Turkish empire, all of which held Greece back and stopped them taking advantage of the new discoveries; and yet the people of Greece remained happy, lived a good life and are among the longest living people in the world.

The current problem stems from their borrowing. If an individual or a company wishes to buy a house or expand their business they have to meet certain criteria and prove they have the ability to repay the loan. A sensible lender then credit scores the borrower and accepts their plans and figures tally and the loan is granted or refused as the case may be.

In the case of Greece it was all very different, the EU are so desperate to gather new members to the club that any proper investigation as to their credit worthiness is cursory at best and downright lies at worst; so a loan is granted even though there is no hope of ever getting the money back (these are the same people that scream about irresponsible bankers).

No matter the outcome of Sundays referendum in Greece, the results will be to accept more cuts and remain in the Euro, there is absolutely no chance that Greece will ever be able to repay the loan as they do not produce enough to generate the Euros to settle the debt or even meet the interest payments.

The Germans also have their back to the wall as they know should they be lenient with Greece then others (Portugal, Spain, Eire and Italy) will want the same treatment, leaving Germany and a nigh on bankrupt France to foot the bill.

It appears to me that the only solution to the loan and Euro problem is for all the members of the Euro club to give up any sovereignty to their tax raising and government bond rates and for Europe to have one “bank” in charge of the Euro exchange rates, national tax, interest rates and government bond/funding rates. This could be helped by allowing countries or districts to impose local “purchase tax” on certain items in order to fund local needs.

To have various countries using one currency when the earning and buying power of that currency varies so much is a recipe for disaster.

The problem would be which country would you trust to look after such a scheme when each country still distrusts their neighbour?

In the meantime Greece should be good for a holiday this year as the locals are desperate for cash as their banks are shut; so take cash with you and enjoy Greece.

Has Diversity and equality gone too far?

Yesterday I was talking to a manager in a large financial institution that has fully embraced all the guidelines and rules. His team has gays, lesbians, an appropriate quota of females and ethnic minorities and has decided that the next hire must be a white male.
Whatever happened to employing the most suitable person for the job?
The fact is that an extraordinary amount of time and effort is wasted by both the business and its recruitment agencies because of the hidden agenda and this is perhaps why most now seem to measure agency “success” on how many CV’s are put forward rather than the conversion rate of CV’s to job offers.
From a business perspective it makes no sense at all, as the old adage states a business is only as good as its employees so why would you choose to complicate things?
Employers are running scared of employment law – laws which were brought in with the best intentions to ensure equal opportunity for all -are now actively discriminating against the majority of job applicants so if you wondered why a job interview went well and yet no offer was forthcoming it might be purely because your face didn’t fit.